Hullabaloo summarizes why we, Democrats, fetishize the Coming Perfect Storm

Hullabaloo: "We just don't have the killer instinct. They do. So they win and we lose. I guess we have to wait for total economic armageddon or nuclear meltdown in which case we will win by default. "



The original thesis of this blog was that Bush is such an unwise leader, that his policies would inevitably lead to catastrophe, and, if the U.S. is lucky, perhaps, the catastrophes will coincide and the bad results will be so unmistakeable, that the Republican Party as presently constituted will be swept from power for a generation. This is a perversely hopeful scenario, in that it requires the country to endure a painful and humiliating period.



One alternative theory is that Bush's foolishness will never lead to catastrophic "moment" and that his supporters are so stupid, they can rationalize any eventuality. The U.S. will decline precipitously, economically, politically and militarily, but like a live lobster in a warming pot, the political majority of Americans will not notice until we're all cooked. A conservative Supreme Court will strip the government of the legal basis for the New Deal; economic decline will be blamed on globalization, even as Republican corporate executives walk away with $100 million salaries, untaxed, of course; military and diplomatic failure to head off nuclear proliferation and the rise of China and Iran, etc., will be laughed off. With a corporate right-wing media dominating all sources of information, and "electronic voting" eliminating the need for anything more than a show of political campaigning, the country will slip into a fascist state, from which it might begin to recover, circa 2040.



For the really paranoid, there is a variation on the boiled lobster thesis, which suggests that Bush's policies are aimed at "hooverizing" his Democratic successor. His military policy and his economic policy are certain to have disastrous consequences in the long run, but his plan is to be out of office before then. Let a Democrat clean up the mess, and let the Democrats be blamed, say, for having to withdraw from Iraq or raise taxes to cover the deficits.

Whiskey Bar: Spring Time for Khomeini

Whiskey Bar: Spring Time for Khomeini: "the American Conservative (dead tree version) [reports] this:



" 'The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick Cheney's office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons.



" 'Within Iran there are more than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option. As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States.



" 'Several senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly appalled at the implications of what they are doing -- that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack -- but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objections.' "



Billmon: "You have to love that last line. I bet that defense goes over REAL big at their war crime trials.



"Seriously, though, I we should all pray (long and hard) that his is just Dick Cheney trying out Dick Nixon's 'madman theory' -- acting like a genocidal maniac in hopes of convincing the other side that you really might be a genocidal maniac. (like the Chinese generals I mentioned above.)



"It's also possible that this is part of some kind of smokescreen being blown to convince the Frank Gaffneys of the world that the administration isn't about to pull a U-turn on Iran policy. But then why leak it to the neoconphobes at the American Conservative?



"It should be obvious why I badly want to believe that this is a bluff or a ruse. The alternative is that the Vice President of the United States and his trained seal are contemplating the ultimate war crime. And the good little Germans in the Air Force are going right along with it -- lest they injure their promotion potential.



It doesn't get any worse than that."



OK, so this is the ultimate "perfect storm" in the offing -- a war crime of such stupendous magnitude that the U.S. would practically have to commit national suicide to atone. Republicans could not just be swept out at the next election; they would have to be arrested and executed. That such a thing is even plausible is to condemn the political situation of the moment, and that reckless, ignorant, cowardly stupid half of the country, which is ultimately responsible.

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Taking the Long View

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Taking the Long View: "He elaborated a bit on his book's account of the Easter Island collapse, where a society that could build 80-ton statues 33 feet high and drag them 12 miles, and who could navigate the Pacific Ocean to and from the most remote islands in the world, could also cut down their rich rain forest and doom themselves utterly. With no trees left for fishing canoes, the Easter Islanders turned to devouring each other. The appropriate insult to madden a member of a rival clan was, 'The flesh of your mother sticks between my teeth!' The population fell by 90% in a few years, and neither the society nor the island ecology have recovered in the 300 years since.



"Diamond reported that his students at UCLA tried to imagine how the guy who cut down the LAST tree in 1680 justified his actions. What did he say? Their candidate quotes: 'Fear not. Our advancing technology will solve this problem.' 'This is MY tree, MY property! I can do what I want with it.' 'Your environmentalist concerns are exaggerated. We need more research.' 'Just have faith. God will provide.'



"The question everyone asks, Diamond said, is, How can people be so dumb? It's a crucial question, with a complex answer. He said that sometimes it's a failure to perceive a problem, especially if it comes on very slowly, like climate change. Often it's a matter of conflicting interests with no resolution at a higher level than the interests-- warring clans, greedy industries. Or there may be a failure to examine and understand the past.



Overall, it's a failure to think long term. That itself has many causes. One common one is that elites become insulated from the consequences of their actions. "

General Glut's Globblog: Inflation, shminflation part 4

General Glut's Globblog: Inflation, shminflation part 4: "overall we are looking at incredibly -- and I think potentially dangerously -- low inflation levels."



I don't think people generally, or even economists generally, appreciate just how dangerous deflation is.

Ruling Lets U.S. Restart Trials at Guant�namo - New York Times

Ruling Lets U.S. Restart Trials at Guant�namo - New York Times: "The appeals judges said the Bush administration's plan to try some detainees before military commissions did not violate the Constitution, international law or American military law."



Of course, the Bush plan violates all three. This decision and the willingness of the Republican judges to make it, signal the gradual solidifying of the fascist State. Basically, they have decided that the fuhrer principle applies. (I am not exaggerating.) The rule of law has been lost.

Angry Bear on inflation

Angry Bear: "Has this fall in inflation rates been the result of softening demand, or is there another explanation? If it's demand-driven, is it simply another reflection of this spring's economic 'soft patch', which recent evidence caused some to suggest may have ended in the past month or two? If so, does this mean that inflation rates will begin ticking up again this summer? Or alternatively, is this inflation data circumstantial evidence that the soft patch is continuing, and perhaps the beginning of a more protracted economic downturn?"



There are those, who insist that inflation is higher than it seems.



And, there are those of us, who fear that deflation might pop out from behind clouds of dust, to send the economy into a tailspin.



But, maybe this is all "good news" for the economy, and for Republicans, who hope to put the day of reckoning off until a Democrat arrives in the White House, ready to be Hooverized.

Dials Moving Into the Red Zone

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Dials Moving Into the Red Zone: "At the end of 2000 I said that while the U.S. trade deficit was a worry, . . . I would have put the chance of a major dollar-based financial crisis at only one-in-a-thousand.



"By the end of 2003 I said that the chance of a major dollar-based financial crisis was one-in-a-hundred, . . . .



"By the end of 2004 I thought that the chance of a major dollar-based financial crisis was one-in-ten.



"Now I think that the chances are one-in-five. "