James Wolcott quotes the incomparable Gore Vidal: "'A current pejorative adjective is narcissistic. Generally, a narcissist is anyone better looking than you are, but lately the adjective is often applied to those 'liberals' who prefer to improve the lives of others rather than exploit them. Apparently, a concern for others is self-love at its least attractive, while greed is now a sign of the highest altruism. But then to reverse, periodically, the meanings of words is a very small price to pay for our vast freedom not only to conform but to consume.'"
One of these days, I hope to write some insightful piece about how damaging to the truth is engaging in "debate" with these right-wing thugs. Till then, I will treasure the words of better men than I.
Tuesday, August 8, 2006
Oil and War: the Big Picture . . . maybe
Informed Comment: "One Ring to Rule Them"
The realpolitiks of oil: war in the Middle East to secure oil reserves. If this is what Bush is "really" up to, the Perfect Storm is going to be a doozy.
The realpolitiks of oil: war in the Middle East to secure oil reserves. If this is what Bush is "really" up to, the Perfect Storm is going to be a doozy.
Roubini Global Economics (RGE) Monitor
Roubini Global Economics (RGE) Monitor: "Five Ugly Realities About the Coming Severe U.S. Recession"
Friday, August 4, 2006
Political Wire: The Gathering Storm
Political Wire quotes Charlie Cook:
"'Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they’ll seize the Senate are rising toward 50-50.
'The electoral hurricane bearing down on the GOP looks likely to be a Category 4 or 5, strong enough to destroy at least one of the party’s majorities. The political climate feels much as it did before previous elections that produced sizable upheavals, such as in 1994, when Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats, and control of both chambers.'"
World War III on the horizon
Billmon sobers me up:
Just when I was feeling good about the political re-alignment promised by Lieberman's imminent defeat in Connecticut, Billmon has to remind me about the continuing insanity of the Bush policy in the Middle East, and its consequences.
Having warned us of Armageddon, Billmon then goes on to analyze his fears regarding the political potency of the Democratic Party. Ok. That's not usually where the topic of WWIII takes me first. But, fair enough: the Democrats have taken the better part of 3 years just to get themselves to the point where they kind of, sort of, agree that Bush's Iraq Adventure is a disaster. Politically, they have not really figured a way out, or what their alternative policy would look like.
It does look like Bush wants war with Iran.
Frankly, whether the Democrats support or oppose, does not seem to me, to matter much. It is still wildly hypothetical.
I have always thought the Democrats are wildly naive, politically as well as substantively, to propose withdrawal in any form, which is not preceded by some other form of massive aid to the Iraqis. But, no one is paying any attention to me.
I am really not too concerned about WWIII starting between Iran and Israel. Iran does not have that kind of military power or reach, even if they had access to the airspace or the landroutes between Israel and Iran, there's not much they could do, because they lack the logistical capacity.
Iran may well end up dominating Iraq. Just let it happen, say I.
Bush is insane. That's the critical realization. His narrative, which ends in the urgency of war, is based on that insanity. The dangers here do not really exist on the existential scale, which all this drama presupposes.
Bush may well attack Iran. Such an ill-advised adventure would bring down his Administration and American dreams of Empire, and be a tragedy for many thousands. It might even bring down the American Way of Oil, with it. And, that, in the long run, could well be a good thing.
The School of Experience is a tough school. The entrance requirements are low, but the curriculum is extensive and the teaching methods rough. Still, some will learn in no other.
The Democrats will be able to fashion a reasonable alternative to Bush's insanity, when the American People are finished learning from it.
Just when I was feeling good about the political re-alignment promised by Lieberman's imminent defeat in Connecticut, Billmon has to remind me about the continuing insanity of the Bush policy in the Middle East, and its consequences.
"If the United States were to begin pulling troops out of Iraq now, it would be interpreted correctly throughout the Middle East as an open admission of defeat -- one that would likely lead fairly quickly to a complete American evacuation of the country. (Maybe not literally by landing helicopters on the roof of the embassy, but all in the region would understand the military reality that as the force grows smaller it will become progressively more dangerous to keep it in Iraq.)
Such an outcome could force well Iraq's Shi'a political leaders to snuggle up even more tightly to Iran, if only as a matter of physical survival. If the full-scale civil war everyone seems to expect were to break out following an American withdrawal, Baghdad might even feel compelled to call in Iranian troops. At a minimum, Iran could be left with enormous influence over, if not outright control of, the Iraqi government and its security forces. Access to Iraqi air space would give Iran a direct resupply corridor to Syria, and, through Syria, to Hizbullah. A ground presence could provide Tehran with a direct ground link -- call it the Ayatollah Khomeini Trail -- assuming the Kurds could be bought off and/or intimidated, or the Sunni belt pacified (one shudders to think of what that might involve.)
Presto: one Shi'a crescent to go.
Of course, it might not actually come to this -- or if it did it might not come quickly. But the fact remains that the U.S. Army is the only significant force standing between Iran and it's closest allies, and thus between Iran and Israel. If, as it now seems, Washington and Jerusalem both perceive Iran as the primary threat (and/or target for aggression) in the region, then there is no real distinction between America's occupation of Iraq and Israel's intended re-occupation of southern Lebanon. They are, in essence, both part of the next war.
It seems increasingly probable that that war will come soon -- perhaps as early as November or December, although more likely next year. Israel's failure to knock out Hizbullah with a rapid first strike has left the neocons even deeper in the hole, enormously ratcheting up the pressure to try to recoup all losses by taking the war to Damascus and Tehran.
In other words, it's almost time for the ultimate "flight forward" -- the one that finally pushes the Middle East into World War III."
Having warned us of Armageddon, Billmon then goes on to analyze his fears regarding the political potency of the Democratic Party. Ok. That's not usually where the topic of WWIII takes me first. But, fair enough: the Democrats have taken the better part of 3 years just to get themselves to the point where they kind of, sort of, agree that Bush's Iraq Adventure is a disaster. Politically, they have not really figured a way out, or what their alternative policy would look like.
It does look like Bush wants war with Iran.
Frankly, whether the Democrats support or oppose, does not seem to me, to matter much. It is still wildly hypothetical.
I have always thought the Democrats are wildly naive, politically as well as substantively, to propose withdrawal in any form, which is not preceded by some other form of massive aid to the Iraqis. But, no one is paying any attention to me.
I am really not too concerned about WWIII starting between Iran and Israel. Iran does not have that kind of military power or reach, even if they had access to the airspace or the landroutes between Israel and Iran, there's not much they could do, because they lack the logistical capacity.
Iran may well end up dominating Iraq. Just let it happen, say I.
Bush is insane. That's the critical realization. His narrative, which ends in the urgency of war, is based on that insanity. The dangers here do not really exist on the existential scale, which all this drama presupposes.
Bush may well attack Iran. Such an ill-advised adventure would bring down his Administration and American dreams of Empire, and be a tragedy for many thousands. It might even bring down the American Way of Oil, with it. And, that, in the long run, could well be a good thing.
The School of Experience is a tough school. The entrance requirements are low, but the curriculum is extensive and the teaching methods rough. Still, some will learn in no other.
The Democrats will be able to fashion a reasonable alternative to Bush's insanity, when the American People are finished learning from it.
Political Realignment
I'm fascinated by how in the last couple of weeks, the liberal blogosphere has suddenly recognized the political realignment starting to take shape in Connecticut.
After a long period in coma, the American political constitution (sic: small c) may be creaking into life, trying to right the balance after the long, dark night of the soul, which has been the catastrophic Presidency of George W. Bush.
The signs are faint, but a political realignment seems about to happen. Assumptions about political dynamics, which have been "true" since 1932, since 1968, since 1994, appear ready to wash away, as a small, but important part of the Republican Party migrates to the Democratic Party.
Bipartisanship was the center of power in U.S. politics for a long time. It was part of a pattern established by FDR in the New Deal and, especially, WWII. It was how the liberal consensus of the 1950's expressed itself -- a way for liberal Republicans and liberal Democrats to combine to wield policymaking power, which the dominating conservative wings of both their respective Parties would prefer to have denied them. And, it was how Reagan ran his revolution, creating a Congressional majority his Party did not actually possess.
Bipartisanship was struck a mortal blow by Whitewater, died in Florida, and was pronounced dead by the five coroners of the Supreme Court.
The critical thing for the country is to get policymaking power again into rational hands. There was a time, when that meant the cool, moderating environment of bipartisanship, where the radicals of both parties could be excluded. But, now the majority party, the party in power, has gone totally insane. You cannot compromise with insanity and come out of it with anything but insanity. You get monstrosities like the minimum wage increase married to an estate tax cut. Or, the current Republican proposals to repaint Bush's Kangaroo Court military tribunals AND extend their jurisdiction to everyone!
The sane, the decent, the secular and the rational remnant of the Republican Party is asking for refugee status in the Democratic Party. They bring the promise of an electoral majority and political power. For the sake of the Country, not the Party, for the sake of the Country, we must disenthrall ourselves of the political past, and embrace the new political alignment and make it work.
After a long period in coma, the American political constitution (sic: small c) may be creaking into life, trying to right the balance after the long, dark night of the soul, which has been the catastrophic Presidency of George W. Bush.
The signs are faint, but a political realignment seems about to happen. Assumptions about political dynamics, which have been "true" since 1932, since 1968, since 1994, appear ready to wash away, as a small, but important part of the Republican Party migrates to the Democratic Party.
Bipartisanship was the center of power in U.S. politics for a long time. It was part of a pattern established by FDR in the New Deal and, especially, WWII. It was how the liberal consensus of the 1950's expressed itself -- a way for liberal Republicans and liberal Democrats to combine to wield policymaking power, which the dominating conservative wings of both their respective Parties would prefer to have denied them. And, it was how Reagan ran his revolution, creating a Congressional majority his Party did not actually possess.
Bipartisanship was struck a mortal blow by Whitewater, died in Florida, and was pronounced dead by the five coroners of the Supreme Court.
The critical thing for the country is to get policymaking power again into rational hands. There was a time, when that meant the cool, moderating environment of bipartisanship, where the radicals of both parties could be excluded. But, now the majority party, the party in power, has gone totally insane. You cannot compromise with insanity and come out of it with anything but insanity. You get monstrosities like the minimum wage increase married to an estate tax cut. Or, the current Republican proposals to repaint Bush's Kangaroo Court military tribunals AND extend their jurisdiction to everyone!
The sane, the decent, the secular and the rational remnant of the Republican Party is asking for refugee status in the Democratic Party. They bring the promise of an electoral majority and political power. For the sake of the Country, not the Party, for the sake of the Country, we must disenthrall ourselves of the political past, and embrace the new political alignment and make it work.
Thursday, August 3, 2006
The Power of Propaganda to Quiet the Storm
Too Late for Empire:
hat tip to Ezra Klein, who adds this:
Media consolidation has resulted in an homogenous corporate right-wing media, which is practically a propaganda machine for the extreme Right-Wing. PBS/NPR, which was created as a non-advertising supported alternative institutional media has been completely co-opted by right-wing foundations and corporate "identity" sponsorship, which looks like advertising.
In this "news media ecology", the netroots are an alternative channel for creating and propagating critical narratives. They are not a political movement. They are an injection of antibiotics into a body politic about to succumb to the equivalent of a systemic staph infection. The antibiotics make the body politic feel worse, because killing off some of the multiplying staph triggers the release by the staph of toxins, in the form of slime campaigns and desperate attempts to suppress the vote. But, the antibiotics are all that prevent the body from slipping into a coma.
"All over the world, autocratic-minded rulers, from Italy's former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to Russia's President Vladimir Putin, have learned that de facto control of the political content of television is perhaps the most important lever of power in our day. They have learned that it does not matter politically if 15 or even 25 percent of the public is well informed as long the majority remains in the dark. The problem has not been censorship but something very nearly censorship's opposite: the deafening noise of the official megaphone and its echoes--not the suppression of truth, still spoken and heard in a narrow circle, but a profusion of lies and half lies; not too little speech but too much. If you whisper something to your friend in the front row of a rock concert, you have not been censored, but neither will you be heard."
hat tip to Ezra Klein, who adds this:
"The problem isn't a lack of information, or the obvious censorship of a police state, but the projection and absorption of misinformation and spin. I always come back to, as example, the polls showing that Americans knew more about Clinton's health care plan directly after his first speech than after nine months of round-the-clock media coverage. By tuning into the press coverage, they felt informed on the plans outlines. They were not. But it's infinitely harder to convince someone that what they 'know' is wrong rather than that what they don't know is important."
Media consolidation has resulted in an homogenous corporate right-wing media, which is practically a propaganda machine for the extreme Right-Wing. PBS/NPR, which was created as a non-advertising supported alternative institutional media has been completely co-opted by right-wing foundations and corporate "identity" sponsorship, which looks like advertising.
In this "news media ecology", the netroots are an alternative channel for creating and propagating critical narratives. They are not a political movement. They are an injection of antibiotics into a body politic about to succumb to the equivalent of a systemic staph infection. The antibiotics make the body politic feel worse, because killing off some of the multiplying staph triggers the release by the staph of toxins, in the form of slime campaigns and desperate attempts to suppress the vote. But, the antibiotics are all that prevent the body from slipping into a coma.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)