83%

New York Times/CBS Poll Finds: "Mr. Bush clearly faces constraints as he seeks to address the public concerns about Iraq that have shrouded this midterm election: 83 percent of respondents thought that Mr. Bush was either hiding something or mostly lying when he discussed how the war in Iraq was going."

Day of Reckoning

Fareed Zakaria:

"President Bush says that if America leaves Iraq now, the violence will get worse, and terrorists could take control. He's right. But that will be true whenever we leave. 'Staying the course' only delays that day of reckoning."

Most intelligent people, who have been paying attention and are honest, recognized that Bush failed in Iraq, long before he was making a fool of himself on that aircraft carrier. But, conservative opinion makers have adopted narratives designed to obscure the realization. Fareed Zakaria, one of the most important makers of opinion on Iraq, has dropped the pretence.

Kevin Drum notices the tectonic shift in the conventional wisdom:

"Zakaria is a smart guy, but he's also a person who's good at putting his finger to the wind — and then getting credit for leading the way when he anticipates an imminent shift. That may be what's happening here. Sometimes all it takes is for one person to say something publicly in order to get everyone else to finally admit their own unspoken doubts. This may be the column that breaks the dam and makes withdrawal respectable among the center-right establishment."

Remember . . .

'No Further Fallout' - washingtonpost.com: "REMEMBER WHEN President Bush promised to restore honor and integrity to the Oval Office? He doesn't either . . . "

(thanks to the shrill Mark Kleiman)

What Goes Around . . .

Andrew Sullivan:

"Part of me is distressed that the GOP could lose not because of spending recklessness, corruption, torture, big government, pork, and a hideously botched war ... but because of a sex scandal which doesn't even have (so far as we know) any actual sex. But part of me also sees the karmic payback here. They rode this tiger; now it's turning on them. And it's dinner time."

I cannot say I am not enjoying, just a little bit. Still, I remain somewhat pessimistic. New habits of critical thinking and reporting are hard to break. The Associated Press and Fox News, for a time, were identifying Republican predator (is that a redundancy?) Mark Foley as a Democrat! That ol' liberal media just funnin' us now, I guess.

Here's a ray of sunshine from Gary Sargent: "The Washington Post has, for two days running now, been aggressively correcting President Bush's lies about Democrats."

And, in a few short weeks we will see if they still count votes in this country.

It is October: Surprised, yet?

Bill mon at Whiskey Bar: Fall Classic:

"One of the things that makes watching the Cheney Administration so exciting is that you never know how paranoid you ought to be.

"It would, in a totally perverse way, be carthartic (in both senses of the word) if the real October surprise turned out to be a tactical nuclear strike on Isfahan. At least the uncertainty would be gone. We would know beyond a reasonable doubt that the United States is no longer a constitutional republic, at least not in any meaningful sense, and could respond as our consciences and courage dictate. And I could finally stop worrying about whether I'm being too paranoid.

"Like I said, I don't expect it happen. War with Iran may be and probably is coming, but I doubt it's coming on Karl Rove's timetable.

Still, given the hole the Rovians now find themselves in, and the stakes they're playing for, I'm going to be nervously paranoid each and every day until the polls close on November 7."

Me, being a more traditional Democrat, will be experiencing peak paranoia slightly after the polls closed -- probably, about the time the "results" are announced.

Gas prices and the reported unemployment rate are low, and the stock market is nearing its all-time peak. Coincidence? My paranoia cannot quite decide.

Bush is a challenge for the imaginative mind. On the one hand, he seems a bumbling fool. On the other, he is enormously powerful, tied closely to a variety of enormously powerful organizations and institutions. Added to his apparent foolishness is the ethically-challenged nature of his close associates.

Hmmm. What to think, what to think? What to pray, what to pray?

Trying to Lose?

The Carpetbagger Report:

"is it possible Republicans are trying to lose the elections? I'm only half-kidding. The fact that the GOP isn't competent or ethical is hardly news, but as a rule, these guys are great at politics. All of a sudden, they're the gang that can't shoot straight — on Foley, the NIE, the 'comma,' Woodward revelations, the Taliban, etc.

I find it hard to believe the Republicans are intentionally throwing the campaign cycle, but if they were, wouldn't it look a bit like this?"

Well, yes, it is possible.

There has always been present in Republican policy design elements, which suggest that the Grand Strategy is to let the inevitable disaster happen on a Democratic watch, and then blame the Democrats.

One way to get out of Iraq is to let the Democrats "force" us out of Iraq, and, then, to blame the Democrats for losing Iraq.

Economist's View: This Can't Be Real

Economist's View: Mark Thoma:

"I can't figure out how I ended up in bizarro world where liberals are upset at government intrusion into the private sector, something that is supported and encouraged by conservatives. Even libertarians are largely silent as the government stomps on the marketplace for ideas and engages in other intrusions. And that's just the tip of the bizarro world iceberg these days. There's torture before we know if people are innocent or guilty, spying on private citizens without warrants, throwing people in jail without the right to contest it in court, all sorts of stuff that could only exist in some alternative up is down, bad is good universe. Seriously, this can't be real. "

Oh, it is real enough. Welcome to fascist America.