The Blogging of the President: 2004: "Watergate . . . was a wake up and drive moment for America. Iraq and the economy are converging on another such moment. The first principle of scandals, as we are reminded by the identification of 'Deep Throat' as Mark Felt, is that scandals don't happen, they are allowed to happen. Scandals happen when some institutional players have a reason for putting pressure on someone else."
. . .
""Why is that? Because a scandal is a way of turning things people don't want to hear about - policy, facts, principles, history, numbers - and turning them into soap opera: the bad bad person gets caught.
The Republicans hope that they can hold off recession until after 2008. That way they can
1. Blame it on the Democrat, if they lose 2008. And obstruct anything the Democrat wants to do so that it won't get better.
2. Have 4 years to hope it gets better if they win.
Since the 'Powers that Be' want reactionary government, we should expect to see all the accoutrements of the reactionary order, for example, the cult of Reagan, continue to be pushed by the top down media. What is funny is that this is about the high water mark of the reactionary civic religion in America - the top down media is going to be pushing a religion that has less and less of a constituency."
Stirling Newbery is my hero.
No, seriously. This post is a masterpiece. Read it all.
"However, once a scandal is in play, anything can happen. The 'winner' will be the one who comes up with a good narrative. Jimmy Carter road Watergate to the White House by saying to the American people that the problem was lying. They were lied to. The reality is that the problem wasn't lying, it was energy, and telling the truth to people about energy, namely we had to use less and do more with what we had, wasn't very popular. Americans didn't want to hear that, and so they voted for Reagan, who lied more often, and better, than Nixon ever had.
"Gingrich road Wright's scandals to power. The narrative was that the entrenched Democrats were the problem. Leave aside the Republican Congress is more out of touch and corrupt than the old Democratic Congress was, that was the narrative.
"Bush road Clinton's scandal into power, because he too had a narrative: it was that Clinton was too smart. Stupid is good, you can't trust anyone who uses language well, that's "flip flopping". Like Carter's mantra, it was important because it destroyed the very willingness of people to even listen to the otherside. It got at the core of ethos.
"Thus when the scandal comes into play, the real question isn't the facts, it is the way to string together the details. The side that strings those pearls together to produce a bright glamour, will win."
Readers of this blog will know that I think liberals and Democrats are hoping that Bush is brought down by scandal. Mr. Newbery reminds us that power politics lies behind scandal. Liberals and Democrats are decidedly out of power at this moment. And, Republicans are still hoping to hooverize the Democrats, to put Democrats in the unfortunate position of having to administer the pain, which accompanies adult responsibility. Can they put off debacle in Iraq and economic collapse at home until November 2008?
It seems impossibly long to me, and I wonder what they [the reactionary, Republican power structure] will do, when 2008 seems a bit too far to reach? If the Democrats were to gain control of either house of Congress in 2006, the fat would be in the fire, because, then, there would be some Democrats able to investigate the myriad scandals of the Bush administration. Such a prospect remains remote.
I honestly would not put anything past the Republican powers. Rove is capable of any kind of conspiracy. Bush should definitely watch his health and safety.
Friday, June 3, 2005
Irradiated Oil
The Blogging of the President: 2004
Stirling Newbery is better than anyone I know of, at giving people the really Big Picture.
He identified the 2004 election as a watershed election, similar to 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1968 in the breadth of its implications for the politics, which followed.
Today, he identifies the paramount economic issues underlying the politics. I think he is dead on. We have built an economy on petroleum, and for a variety of reasons, we have to give it up, and fairly quickly.
Stirling Newbery is better than anyone I know of, at giving people the really Big Picture.
He identified the 2004 election as a watershed election, similar to 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1968 in the breadth of its implications for the politics, which followed.
Today, he identifies the paramount economic issues underlying the politics. I think he is dead on. We have built an economy on petroleum, and for a variety of reasons, we have to give it up, and fairly quickly.
Thursday, June 2, 2005
Priorities | Liberals Against Terrorism
Priorities | Liberals Against Terrorism: "what's up with the Bush administration rushing to name the pro-Enron Chris Cox as the new SEC Chair when AFAIK there's been no similar rush to fill long-vacant counterterrorism slots and top Treasury jobs, the State Department is still waiting for Karen Hughes to do whatever she's doing, and there's been no US ambassador in Iraq for some months now?"
sniff, sniff . . . one almost might suspect a corporate scandal in the offing, which is being nipped in the bud by firing Donaldson and bringing in Cox. Hmmm.
sniff, sniff . . . one almost might suspect a corporate scandal in the offing, which is being nipped in the bud by firing Donaldson and bringing in Cox. Hmmm.
Billmon
Billmon: "it's still hard to escape the conclusion that the American people have had, generally speaking, plenty of opportunities to learn the filthy truth about this administration and this war -- that is, if they were actually interested in the truth, which many of them (up to 51%, judging from the last election) apparently are not.
What the health of the Republic requires, in other words, may not be a new crop of leakers and whistleblowers, or a fresh young generation of Woodwards and Bernsteins -- or even a more independent, aggressive media. What it may need is a new population (or half of a population, anyway), one that hasn't been stupified or brainwashed into blind submission, that won't look upon sadistic corruption and call it patriotism, and that will refuse to trade the Bill of Rights for a plastic Jesus and a wholly false sense of security.
That's a much taller order than asking the Gods to send us another Deep Throat -- or even a Luke Skywalker. It's also not an easy thing for liberals, with their old-fashioned faith in democracy, to face: That the Evil Emperor might have a majority (a narrow one, but still a majority) on his side. But a truth isn't any less true for being politically unpalatable.
Which is why right now it's easy for me to imagine Richard Nixon, looking up from the inner circle of hell and lamenting his bad luck in being elected to the presidency just 30 years too soon."
Bush II has produced more scandal than all of the Administrations of the 20th century put together, and a majority of the American People, fat (very fat), dumb and Happy? refuse to be shocked or outraged.
That's why the perverse hope for a perfect storm is about the only slender thread, on which a true patriot can hang her hopes for her country's redemption.
What the health of the Republic requires, in other words, may not be a new crop of leakers and whistleblowers, or a fresh young generation of Woodwards and Bernsteins -- or even a more independent, aggressive media. What it may need is a new population (or half of a population, anyway), one that hasn't been stupified or brainwashed into blind submission, that won't look upon sadistic corruption and call it patriotism, and that will refuse to trade the Bill of Rights for a plastic Jesus and a wholly false sense of security.
That's a much taller order than asking the Gods to send us another Deep Throat -- or even a Luke Skywalker. It's also not an easy thing for liberals, with their old-fashioned faith in democracy, to face: That the Evil Emperor might have a majority (a narrow one, but still a majority) on his side. But a truth isn't any less true for being politically unpalatable.
Which is why right now it's easy for me to imagine Richard Nixon, looking up from the inner circle of hell and lamenting his bad luck in being elected to the presidency just 30 years too soon."
Bush II has produced more scandal than all of the Administrations of the 20th century put together, and a majority of the American People, fat (very fat), dumb and Happy? refuse to be shocked or outraged.
That's why the perverse hope for a perfect storm is about the only slender thread, on which a true patriot can hang her hopes for her country's redemption.
Wreck It and Run - by William S. Lind
Wreck It and Run - by William S. Lind: "When Rumsfeld leaves office, what will his successor inherit?
#
"A volunteer military without volunteers. . .
"The world's largest pile of wrecked and worn-out military equipment (maybe second-largest if we remember the old Soviet Navy). I'm talking about basic stuff here: trucks, Humvees, personnel carriers, crew-served weapons, etc. This is gear the Rumsfeld Pentagon hates to spend money on, because it does not represent "transformation" to the hi-tech, video-game warfare it wrongly sees as the future. . .
"A military tied down in a strategically meaningless backwater, Iraq, to the point where it can't do much else. . .
"Commitments to hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of future weapons programs that are militarily as useful as Zeppelins but less fun to watch. . .
"A world wary of U.S. intentions and skeptical of any American claims about anything. . .
"We will be lucky if we can get out of Iraq with anything less than a total loss."
Will these failures be blamed on Democrats or Republicans? Politics is dramatic manipulation of events to create meaning.
We are heading toward one of two political futures. In one, things finally spin completely out of control, well before the 2008 election, and the moderate middle loses its misplaced faith in the Republicans. In the other, the Republicans manage to hand off the country to Democrats in 2008, and the Democrats start acting responsibly -- they pull out of Iraq (who lost Iraq? the Dems, of course, it was all going so swimmingly under Bush); they raise taxes, they watch helplessly as the Chinese stop loaning us money to buy their stuff at Wal-Mart, etc. The Democrats are thoroughly hooverized, and the Republicans dominate the country politically to the end of time.
The "Coming Perfect Storm" -- coming by 2006 or so -- is the Democrat's best semblance of "hope". The Republicans are forced by the Iraqis out of Iraq; the housing bubble bursts, taking the economy with it; the Chinese let the dollar crater.
The hard core of the Republican Party will not be the least swayed by any of these events. Nothing penetrates their double-digit intelligence. But, the moderate middle is results-oriented. Stupid, but results-oriented. If the Democrats, say, withdraw from Iraq and raise taxes -- no matter how necessary and responsible those policy choices may be -- the Democrats will get blamed. If the country gets thrown out of Iraq and experiences a major recession before the Republicans can flee the scene, the Republicans may get blamed. I say, "may" because, let's fact it, Republicans own the corporate right-wing media, quite literally. Katherine Graham and Otis Chandler are long gone.
Democrats need to be in a position to say, "I told you so." And, Democrats -- well, it seems unlikely, but I really wish Democrats could be in a position to push radical change in the form of a repeal of the Republican revolution.
Change the media ownership rules to destroy the corporate right-wing media.
Unionize Wal-Mart.
Enact progressive income taxation and bring back inheritance taxes.
Stop oil drilling in wilderness areas; restore the Clean Air Act, etc.
#
"A volunteer military without volunteers. . .
"The world's largest pile of wrecked and worn-out military equipment (maybe second-largest if we remember the old Soviet Navy). I'm talking about basic stuff here: trucks, Humvees, personnel carriers, crew-served weapons, etc. This is gear the Rumsfeld Pentagon hates to spend money on, because it does not represent "transformation" to the hi-tech, video-game warfare it wrongly sees as the future. . .
"A military tied down in a strategically meaningless backwater, Iraq, to the point where it can't do much else. . .
"Commitments to hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of future weapons programs that are militarily as useful as Zeppelins but less fun to watch. . .
"A world wary of U.S. intentions and skeptical of any American claims about anything. . .
"We will be lucky if we can get out of Iraq with anything less than a total loss."
Will these failures be blamed on Democrats or Republicans? Politics is dramatic manipulation of events to create meaning.
We are heading toward one of two political futures. In one, things finally spin completely out of control, well before the 2008 election, and the moderate middle loses its misplaced faith in the Republicans. In the other, the Republicans manage to hand off the country to Democrats in 2008, and the Democrats start acting responsibly -- they pull out of Iraq (who lost Iraq? the Dems, of course, it was all going so swimmingly under Bush); they raise taxes, they watch helplessly as the Chinese stop loaning us money to buy their stuff at Wal-Mart, etc. The Democrats are thoroughly hooverized, and the Republicans dominate the country politically to the end of time.
The "Coming Perfect Storm" -- coming by 2006 or so -- is the Democrat's best semblance of "hope". The Republicans are forced by the Iraqis out of Iraq; the housing bubble bursts, taking the economy with it; the Chinese let the dollar crater.
The hard core of the Republican Party will not be the least swayed by any of these events. Nothing penetrates their double-digit intelligence. But, the moderate middle is results-oriented. Stupid, but results-oriented. If the Democrats, say, withdraw from Iraq and raise taxes -- no matter how necessary and responsible those policy choices may be -- the Democrats will get blamed. If the country gets thrown out of Iraq and experiences a major recession before the Republicans can flee the scene, the Republicans may get blamed. I say, "may" because, let's fact it, Republicans own the corporate right-wing media, quite literally. Katherine Graham and Otis Chandler are long gone.
Democrats need to be in a position to say, "I told you so." And, Democrats -- well, it seems unlikely, but I really wish Democrats could be in a position to push radical change in the form of a repeal of the Republican revolution.
Change the media ownership rules to destroy the corporate right-wing media.
Unionize Wal-Mart.
Enact progressive income taxation and bring back inheritance taxes.
Stop oil drilling in wilderness areas; restore the Clean Air Act, etc.
Amazon.com: Books: The Stock Ticker and the Superjumbo : How the Democrats Can Once Again Become America's Dominant Political Party
Amazon.com: Books: The Stock Ticker and the Superjumbo : How the Democrats Can Once Again Become America's Dominant Political Party
"Perlstein offers a vigorous critique and far-reaching vision that is a thirty-year [!!!] plan for Democratic victory."
Oh, so little faith in the coming storm!
Given the established patterns of American political cycles, the Republican Party's majority should last until the Presidential election of 2036 or 2040. So, Perlstein may be on to something. (Unfortunately, I will be past 80, by then, and no longer much interested in reestablishing the Enlightenment.)
"Perlstein offers a vigorous critique and far-reaching vision that is a thirty-year [!!!] plan for Democratic victory."
Oh, so little faith in the coming storm!
Given the established patterns of American political cycles, the Republican Party's majority should last until the Presidential election of 2036 or 2040. So, Perlstein may be on to something. (Unfortunately, I will be past 80, by then, and no longer much interested in reestablishing the Enlightenment.)
Wednesday, June 1, 2005
Bloomberg.com: Germany
Bloomberg.com: Germany: "Inflation and growth differentials ``can lead to a meltdown in a couple of years, the collapse of the euro,'' the German magazine quoted Joachim Fels, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley, who took part in the meeting, as saying."
The possibility that China's faltering support of the U.S. dollar might trigger a crisis is a favorite of those fearing a coming storm. But, here's a new storm cloud on the horizon: a unified currency is not an entirely happy experience, evidently.
Just as an aside, it might be noted that Europe would probably benefit from a bit more Euro inflation. A slightly higher inflation rate might help lubricate the gears of the European economy.
The possibility that China's faltering support of the U.S. dollar might trigger a crisis is a favorite of those fearing a coming storm. But, here's a new storm cloud on the horizon: a unified currency is not an entirely happy experience, evidently.
Just as an aside, it might be noted that Europe would probably benefit from a bit more Euro inflation. A slightly higher inflation rate might help lubricate the gears of the European economy.
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