Monday, March 27, 2006

It will be ugly.

Global Guerrillas: JOURNAL: The Window of Controlled Chaos Slams Shut: John Robb summarizes:

"The US is now caught between the militias and the guerrillas and the situation will deteriorate quickly.

"Here's a likely scenario for how this will play out: deeper entrenchment within US bases (to limit casualties) and pledges of neutrality (Rumsfeld) will prove hollow. Ongoing ethnic slaughter will force US intervention to curtail the militias. Inevitably, this will increase tensions with the militias and quickly spin out of control. Military and police units sent to confront the militias will melt down (again), due to conflicting loyalties. Several large battles with militias will drive up US casualties sharply. Supply lines to US bases from Kuwait will be cut. Protesters will march on US bases to demand a withdrawal. Oil production via the south will be cut (again), bringing Iraqi oil exports to a halt. Meanwhile, the government will continue its ineffectual debate within the green zone, as irrelevant to the reality on the ground in the country as ever. Unable to function in the mounting chaos and facing a collapse in public support for the war, the US military will be forced to withdraw in haste. It will be ugly."

I watch the talking head morons on CNN prattle on about how the "next few weeks will be critical. This thing is not lost, yet" and I wonder what planet pundits are recruited from. Iraq was lost, when the U.S. invaded without a plan and without sufficient resources or organization to accomplish basic, necessary obvious goals, like provide security, quickly improve electricity production or potable water supplies, restore the Iraqi economy and provide immediate employment.

When Bush said that he would leave withdrawal to a future President, I knew the gig was up. The U.S. cannot possibly sustain 3 more years in Iraq.

The forced withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq under Bush would be a Perfect Storm, a consequence of bad policy, unmistakeable in its moral lessons for an American electorate, apparently unable to discern the disadvantages of giving political power to a Grand Alliance of the greedy with the stupid.

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