Friday, November 3, 2006
From Professor Franklin via DemFromCT at Kos
Professor Franklin gives the full cautionary warning: "The generic ballot is, of course, only a rough indicator of election outcomes. I also think the current upturn is a political equivalent of 'irrational exuberance' in the sense that the run up in the polls seems likely to seriously overstate the actual vote margin. The current 17 point Democratic margin would be enormous, and even applying the 'Charlie Cook Correction' of subtracting 5 points would still imply a 56-44 Democratic triumph. It may happen, but the generic ballot has virtually always overstated the Democratic lead, and this overstatement seems to get worst as the polling margin increases."
That said, oh my.