Billmon explains about The Idiocracy Vote:
what needs to be kept in mind is that at this late stage the remaining independent undecided or soft leaners generally constitute the least informed, least involved and, in many cases, least intelligent segment of the electorate. Or, to be perfectly blunt about it: Many of them are completely . . . clueless, which means they tend to be the most easily manipulated by the kind of limbic, cesspool politics the Rovian machine now specializes in.
I think it's also true that for a stubbornly high percentage of the voters, the default position is still conservative and Republican. Scandals and/or disappointments, such as the Mark Foley case or the Iraq quagmire, may knock them off that position, but there's a built-in tendency for them to drift back. The Reagan coalition may be old and fraying, but it remains the dominant structure in American politics.
That being the case, it wouldn't be surprising to see a very late swing back towards the Republicans -- just as we have in the last two elections.
The key question, of course, is how many of these soft-headed soft leaners will actually turn out on Tuesday.
We live in hope. This is an off-year election. A lot rides on who actually shows up, in what will be the highest turnout off-year election in a long, long time. And, of course, whose votes actually get counted.