Dials Moving Into the Red Zone

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Dials Moving Into the Red Zone: "At the end of 2000 I said that while the U.S. trade deficit was a worry, . . . I would have put the chance of a major dollar-based financial crisis at only one-in-a-thousand.



"By the end of 2003 I said that the chance of a major dollar-based financial crisis was one-in-a-hundred, . . . .



"By the end of 2004 I thought that the chance of a major dollar-based financial crisis was one-in-ten.



"Now I think that the chances are one-in-five. "