Tuesday, April 19, 2005

The Washington Monthly

The Washington Monthly: "George Bush is an extremist who has no apparent intention of facing up to reality. He will continue to push taxes down, he will continue to spend heavily, and he will continue to ignore global imbalances. This is a recipe for disaster.

How long can this state of affairs last? It's possible that it can last more than four years, but I doubt it. My guess is more like two or three at the outside, and a serious shock — most likely an oil shock of some kind — might cause it to happen sooner.

There are no good solutions to this any longer, but there are still reasonable (if painful) actions that could be taken to soften the blow. Unfortunately, George Bush gives no sign of believing that he should take any of them. What's more, his economic team is far too weak to react to an economic crisis effectively if and when we have one.

So: that's why I think a Democrat will win in 2008. George Bush is a true believer who will keep a firm and confident hand on the wheel as he drives the United States off a cliff. And then we'll have an election."

The only part of the above, which I have any doubts about is the last. Will we have an election?

Bush won 2004, because the fix was in, in Ohio and Florida. Oh, maybe no one was actually stuffing the electronic ballot box (although no one can prove that the election was entirely honest, either), but the Republicans in charge at the State level clearly had their thumbs heavily on the scales. And, we know what happened in 2000.

Two elections in a row could well shape themselves into an ominous kind of precedent.

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