Sunday, February 5, 2006

Beware the Ides of March

The Next Act - by William S. Lind: "Osama bin Laden's latest message. Most observers, including the White House, seem to have missed its significance. In it, bin Laden offered us a truce . . . . The Koran requires Muslims to offer such a truce before they attack. The fact that bin Laden himself made the offer, after a long silence, suggests al-Qaeda attaches high importance to it. "

Lind also suggests that the U.S. is preparing for an attack on Iran and nuclear program, and that things are deteriorating in Iraq.

I think that Bush is just posturing on Iran. (I certainly hope so.) The only thing about it that alarms me is how easily Bush can bring America's political discourse down to the idiot level. But, that alarm has rung a lot, over the last five years.

Things are deteriorating in Iraq. Duh. How rapidly, neither Lind nor I is in a position to judge.

But, Osama successfully launching a major attack in the U.S.? That would be interesting. Frankly, I am inclined to discount this, too. Al Quaeda, for all the PR Bush gives it, has never been a particularly capable organization. You have to be a bit of a moron to join such a radical outfit, so it tends to have a membership dominated by morons; this handicaps its competence. 9/11 was a lucky punch.

What's more interesting to me, is how Bush would spin it, and how successfully. Would it expose Bush as an abject failure?

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