Stirling Newberry predicts a Bush slide: "Earlier I predicted a roughly 5% bounce in Bush's numbers - which is approximately what we've seen. However the same leading indicators which showed the bounce, are now turning against him. The people who are now 'marginally attached' to Bush support are the disorganized white working class . . . This is hard core Bush support."
Newberry's analysis is that this group, the Wal-Mart voter if you will, already very unhappy with gas prices, is going to be made miserable by the economy going south, in the days ahead.
Bush and Rove have been pushing back, with noises on Iraq and "victories" in the war on terror.
Is Bush & Co. going to quietly accept a slide into the 20's? The 20's, before a mid-term election, is lynch mob territory.
I have viewed the Bush visit to Iraq, the arrests of the terror-plotters in Miami and Lebanon, the Congressional debate on "cut and run", etc. as a Rovian rehearsal of strategies for pushing up Republican numbers in time for the November election. Does the evident success of these moves indicate that the Republicans will retain control of Congress?