"Dems currently have 202 seats. Of these, 182 are solid, 10 are likely and 10 are lead D. Dems have no toss-ups.
The R's have 234 seats (one seat is cavant, IIRC) and of their seats, 179 are solid, 18 are likely R, 21 lean R, and 14 are toss-ups.
We need 15 seats."
Really short version, as in the headline: The Dems need 15 seats to assume majority control, and 14 existing Republican seats are in the "toss-up" category.
Nothing, but a virtual Democratic sweep will drive the corrupt Republicans from power. So, things will have to get a good deal stormier, before a change occurs.
My impression is that Democratic control in the Senate is even unlikelier.
What we need is not solid Democratic control in either House, but sufficient Democratic to initiate investigations into Bush corruption and incompetence. "Scandal-plagued" requires a prosecutor.
Let us pray for our country.