Tuesday, December 6, 2005

Iraq Strategy: What this means

My intuition about the game Bush is playing in Iraq is that it will blow up in his face. The Iraqi Army is not being properly trained or equipped, because Bush & Co. is not planning to withdraw. The American People intend to withdraw, however, so Bush is going to pretend to withdraw, hoping things get better.

Exactly how and why this "strategy" is so dangerous, I sense, without being able to articulate the details. John Robb can articulate the details, though, which is why what he says is scary. He does not focus his attention on the kabuki dance of the PNAC (Project for a New American Century) team in Washington, as I do. He's looking at counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq, including "Iraqization" or whatever they call the idea of sending the sectarian militias in to fight the civil war against the Sunni insurgency, nee former Iraqi Army.

What this means:
"The likely outcome will be that the US will have little real value (a decrease in violence) to show for its efforts over the next year. If we do it flawlessly (which is going to be very difficult given a thinking enemy), the controlled chaos may hold long enough for the US to get most of its troops out. Here's what it means:"

What it means, according to John Robb is imminent moral collapse, meltdown, and unexpected events triggering radical policy collapse.

Sounds the political storm of 2006 is going to make Katrina look like child's play.

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